A Monthly Data-Calendar Routine with a Release Scorecard and If-Then Notes

What you will learn

• How to lay out a month of US, German and euro-area releases in order.
• How to score each release from −2 to +2 for growth and inflation and aggregate the scores.
• How to write if-then notes that connect the scorecard to the regime from lesson 12.
• How to review the month in thirty minutes.

Explanation

The weekly macro routine in the foundations course covers calendars and if-then scenarios in general. This lesson builds a monthly routine specific to economic data: a fixed list of releases, a scorecard that separates growth from inflation, and notes that state in advance what a pattern would mean for your plans.

Step 1: The release list

Choose a fixed set of about twelve releases and keep it for at least a year, so that scores are comparable. A reasonable list for a euro-based investor (check current dates each month; schedules change and holidays shift them):

Step 2: The scorecard

For each release record consensus, actual, revision to the previous month, and a score from −2 to +2. Score the surprise relative to typical dispersion (lesson 12): 0 within about half a standard deviation, ±1 for a clear surprise, ±2 for two standard deviations or more, or a surprise that also reverses the trend. Growth releases get a growth score (positive = stronger growth), inflation releases an inflation score (positive = higher inflation); releases with both dimensions (PMIs with prices paid, jobs with wages) get two. Add a one-line comment on what the headline hides.

At month end, average the growth scores and the inflation scores separately. The pair places the month in one of four quadrants: stronger growth with higher inflation, stronger growth with lower inflation, weaker growth with higher inflation, weaker growth with lower inflation. Over several months, the path through the quadrants is more informative than any single reading.

Step 3: If-then notes

Before the month starts, write three to five statements of the form "If the month ends in quadrant X and the central bank is in regime Y, then I will Z." The actions are reviews of plans, not predictions: "then I will check whether my bond duration still fits my written plan", "then I will not add to cyclical positions until the next ifo confirms". At month end you can see whether you followed them.

Step 4: The thirty-minute review

On the first weekend of the new month: fill in the last scores, compute the two averages, compare with the previous three months, re-read the if-then notes and record what you did. Then enter next month's dates and consensus figures.

Worked example

Hypothetical example: eight growth-related scores: payrolls +2 (with a comment on downward revisions), ISM manufacturing −1, retail sales 0, initial claims +1, euro-area flash PMI −1, ifo −1, ZEW 0, German GDP flash 0. Four inflation-related scores: US CPI +1, US PCE 0, flash HICP +1, PMI prices paid 0.

1. Growth sum = 2 − 1 + 0 + 1 − 1 − 1 + 0 + 0 = 0; average = 0 / 8 = 0.0.
2. Inflation sum = 1 + 0 + 1 + 0 = 2; average = 2 / 4 = +0.5.
3. Quadrant: growth neutral, inflation mildly higher. Note the split: US growth scores sum to +2 (+0.5 average) while European scores sum to −2 (−0.5 average), a divergence that matters for the euro–dollar rate and Bund versus Treasury yields.
4. If-then note written in advance: "If inflation scores are positive while European growth scores are negative, then I will review whether my assumption of ECB cuts this quarter still holds before adding duration in euro bonds." The review is triggered; the decision follows the written plan, not the mood of the day.

Common mistake

Practice activity

On paper: score this hypothetical month. Growth: payrolls −1, ISM services +1, retail sales −2, claims −1, euro-area flash PMI 0, ifo +1. Inflation: CPI −1, PCE −1, flash HICP 0, PMI prices paid −1. (a) Calculate the growth and inflation averages. (b) Name the quadrant. (c) Write one if-then note for this quadrant in a growth-worry regime, formulated as a review action.

Key takeaways

• Fix a list of about twelve releases for a year so scores are comparable.
• Score growth and inflation separately; the quadrant path over months is the signal.
• If-then notes trigger reviews of written plans, never predictions or impulsive trades.
• A thirty-minute monthly review shows whether you followed your own rules.

Next step

You can now read the data that central banks read; the next course, "Central Banks & Monetary Policy in Depth", explains how they turn it into policy decisions, balance-sheet operations and communication, and how to read the market-implied rate path.