Reading Economic Data Releases
Learn how the main inflation, labour, activity and survey releases from the US, Germany and the euro area are built, what their headline numbers really measure, and how to read a release critically before you react to it.
Self-study course Self-study course: written lessons, videos and downloadable materials for independent learning. There is no supervision, assessment, individual feedback or tutoring. Self-check quizzes are evaluated automatically in your browser — we do not see your results.
All 13 lessons free
Before you start
- Basic macro vocabulary (inflation, GDP, interest rates), for example from the course Macro Basics
- Comfort with percentages and simple index arithmetic
- Access to a free economic calendar and the websites of statistical agencies
What you will be able to do
- Convert between month-on-month, annualised and year-on-year rates and explain base effects
- Decompose a CPI or HICP print into component contributions and judge underlying inflation with trimmed-mean and supercore measures
- Explain why CPI and PCE diverge and read a GDP release by expenditure components and estimate vintage
- Interpret a US jobs report, including revisions, the two surveys and the birth-death adjustment
- Calculate a diffusion index and read ISM, S&P Global and euro-area PMI sub-indices
- Separate signal from noise in retail sales, industrial production and durable goods data
Lessons in this course
Where Economic Data Comes From: Agencies, Schedules, Revisions and Rate Conventions
Learn who produces the main releases, how schedules and revisions work, what seasonal adjustment does, and how to convert between month-on-month, annualised and year-on-year rates.
CPI and HICP in Depth: Weights, Shelter, Trimmed Means and Germany versus the Euro Area
Decompose a CPI print into component contributions, understand how shelter and owners' equivalent rent are measured, use trimmed-mean and supercore measures, and see why German CPI and HICP differ.
PCE and Deflators: How PCE Differs from CPI and Why the Fed Targets It
Understand the formula, weight and scope differences between PCE and CPI, calculate an implicit GDP deflator, and see why the same month can produce two different inflation rates.
US Labour Reports: Payrolls, the Household Survey, Wages, JOLTS, Claims and Revisions
Read the US jobs report with its two surveys, interpret revisions and the birth-death model, and combine JOLTS and weekly claims into a view of the labour market.
Purchasing Managers' Indices: Diffusion Indices, ISM versus S&P Global and the Euro-Area PMIs
Calculate a diffusion index, understand how the ISM and S&P Global composites are built, read the sub-indices that matter, and use the euro-area flash PMIs correctly.
GDP: Expenditure Components, Estimate Vintages, Nowcasts and Germany's Quarterly Releases
Decompose GDP growth into contributions from consumption, investment, government and net exports, understand the advance-to-third estimate sequence, and use nowcasts such as GDPNow sensibly.
Retail Sales, Industrial Production and Durable Goods: Nominal versus Real, the Control Group and Volatile Categories
Separate price from volume in retail sales, compute the control group, read capacity utilisation and core capital goods orders, and recognise which categories produce noise.
Consumer Sentiment and Expectations: Michigan, Conference Board and GfK
Read the three main consumer surveys, understand how their indices are built, and judge when household inflation expectations matter for markets.
German and European Leading Indicators: ifo, ZEW, Bundesbank Reports and Flash Inflation
Decode the ifo business climate, the ZEW expectations balance, the Bundesbank's monthly assessment and the euro-area flash inflation estimate, and learn the order in which they arrive.
Housing and Credit Data: Housing Starts, Mortgage Applications, Bank Lending Surveys and Money Supply
Read housing starts and permits at annualised rates, weekly mortgage applications, the Fed and ECB bank lending surveys and the monetary aggregates, and understand why these data lead the cycle slowly.
Trade Balance, Current Account and Capital Flows
Build a current account from its four parts, link it to the financial account, and trace how external balances feed through to currencies and bond markets.
How Markets React: The Reaction Function, Consensus Dispersion, Pricing-In and First and Second Moves
Measure a data surprise in standard deviations, map it through the central-bank reaction function to rates, equities and currencies, and recognise the first move, the reversal and what was already priced in.
A Monthly Data-Calendar Routine with a Release Scorecard and If-Then Notes
Build a one-page monthly routine that lists the releases that matter, scores each one against consensus and trend, and turns the result into written if-then notes rather than predictions.
Central Banks & Monetary Policy in Depth
Continue with Central Banks & Monetary Policy in Depth to see how policymakers turn these data releases into interest-rate decisions.
View course outline