⚠ Trading involves significant risk of loss. Everything on this site is for education only and is not financial advice.
Week 44/2026 (26–30 October) · 2026-10-30 · Free

Central banks pause, inflation stays hot, tech sells off and gold breaks below $4,000

ECB at 2.50% and Fed at 3.75–4.00% both held; eurozone inflation 3.8% with Italy at 5.4%; DAX +2.5% on the week to 25,818 while US tech fell on earnings; Brent above $113; gold below $4,000 for the first time since November 2025; Bitcoin near $77,000. Plus the calendar for 2–6 November: US midterms, eurozone flash inflation, Bank of England and US payrolls.

Self-study course Education only. The briefing describes what happened and why it matters for what you are learning. It contains no buy or sell recommendations, no forecasts and no personal advice; it is not monitored learning and nobody will assess your work.

The week in one paragraph

Two central banks paused, inflation data stayed hot, and the week ended with a sharp rotation out of technology shares. The European Central Bank (ECB) left its deposit rate at 2.50% on Thursday after two hikes earlier in 2026; the US Federal Reserve kept its target range at 3.75–4.00% on Wednesday, with two members voting for a hike. Energy drove the inflation story on both sides of the Atlantic: Brent crude traded above $113 a barrel, eurozone inflation stood at 3.8% for September, and October flash readings for Italy (5.4%) and Spain (4.9%) were far above the ECB's 2% target. German shares still had a good week — the DAX gained 2.5% to 25,818 — but gold fell below $4,000 an ounce for the first time in almost a year and Bitcoin slipped to about $77,000.

Interest rates and central banks

  • ECB, Thursday 29 October: all three key rates unchanged — deposit facility 2.50%, main refinancing 2.65%, marginal lending 2.90%. The statement said rising energy prices pose "upside risks to the inflation outlook and downside risks to the growth outlook"; underlying inflation and wages have not yet reacted materially. No commitment to a future path; the next decision is on 17 December.
  • Federal Reserve, Wednesday 28 October: target range held at 3.75–4.00% by a 10–2 vote. Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissented in favour of a quarter-point hike. The statement upgraded its description of activity to "strong". Futures markets priced roughly an 80% probability of a hike in December after the meeting.
  • Bond yields: the German 10-year Bund yield eased to about 3.34% on Friday, a two-month low; the US 10-year Treasury yield fell to about 4.94% on Thursday as investors moved into government bonds during the equity sell-off.

Why this matters for what you are learning: a "hold" is not a neutral event. Markets react to the difference between what was expected and what was said. On Wednesday the pause itself was 93% priced in, so prices moved on the dissents and the word "strong", not on the decision. That is the expectation-versus-outcome logic from the Macro course (lesson Interest rates and central banks) and the reason the Economic Data lessons insist on reading the consensus before the release.

Inflation data

  • Eurozone inflation (HICP) for September was confirmed at 3.8% year on year, up from 3.2% in August; energy inflation was 18.8%. Eurostat publishes the October flash estimate on Wednesday 4 November.
  • National October flash estimates released on Friday: Italy 5.4% (from 4.2%), Spain 4.9% (unchanged), France 3.4%, Germany 2.8% (lower). Economists quoted by Euronews expect the eurozone figure to be around 3.7–4.0%.
  • United States: Q3 GDP growth of 3.4% annualised and September PCE inflation of 3.6% (core 3.1%) were reported on Thursday — both above expectations, which strengthened the case for a December hike.

Learning link: inflation that is driven mainly by energy behaves differently from broad-based inflation; central banks watch "core" and "underlying" measures for exactly this reason. See the Economic Data course and the Commodities course (lesson Commodities and inflation).

Equities

  • Germany: the DAX reached 26,106 points on Thursday, its highest level since early September, then fell 0.85% on Friday to close at 25,818. Week: +2.5%; October: +2.5%. Siemens Energy (−6.9%) and Infineon (−6.4%) led Friday's decline as technology sentiment soured.
  • United States: technology shares fell for a second day on Friday after disappointing results and guidance from several large companies, including Alphabet and Intel. By mid-morning the Nasdaq Composite was down about 2.5% and the S&P 500 about 1.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost about 0.7%. Energy producers Exxon Mobil and Chevron reported record refining profits.
  • Reading the rotation: money moved from the "AI trade" towards government bonds and energy. In sector terms this is the cyclical/defensive logic described in the Sector Analysis course; in trading terms it is why a position-size rule based on volatility matters more than a market view.

Currencies

  • EUR/USD traded around 1.1165–1.1185 at the end of the week, little changed after the two central-bank decisions. The US Dollar Index ended the week near 102.
  • GBP/USD rose for a third week to about 1.3430, a six-week high, ahead of a Bank of England decision at which markets expect a rate increase.

Learning link: rate differentials and their expected path drive currency pairs more than the level of any single rate (Forex course, lesson Interest-rate differentials, swaps and carry).

Gold, oil and other commodities

  • Gold fell below $4,000 per troy ounce for the first time since November 2025, trading around $3,880–3,920 on Friday afternoon, about 3.5% down on the day and roughly 7% down over the past month. Real yields near 5% on US Treasuries and expectations of further rate hikes raised the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset — even though geopolitical risk, which usually supports gold, was high. Silver fell sharply too, and gold-mining shares lost 4–7%.
  • Oil: Brent crude traded at about $113–116 per barrel and WTI above $103, the highest since April 2023, on renewed attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf region and concerns about the Strait of Hormuz. WTI is up about 12% over the month and about 70% over the year.

Learning link: this week is a textbook case of two gold drivers pulling in opposite directions — safe-haven demand versus the real interest rate. The Gold course (lesson What moves the gold price) explains why the interest-rate channel often wins when yields rise fast.

Crypto

  • Bitcoin moved from about $80,300 on Monday morning to about $77,400 on Friday morning (−3.3% on the day, −7% over the month, about −29% year on year). It fell together with technology shares, which is a reminder that in stress periods Bitcoin has often behaved like a high-beta risk asset rather than a hedge.
  • Ethereum's market capitalisation was reported at about $233 billion against about $1.33 trillion for Bitcoin.

Learning link: correlation is not constant. The Crypto Beyond Bitcoin course (lesson Safe practices and a crypto risk framework) shows how to size crypto positions assuming correlation rises exactly when you do not want it to.

Calendar for 2–6 November

Day Release / event Why it matters
Mon 2 Nov US ISM manufacturing PMI (Oct) First read on October activity
Tue 3 Nov US midterm elections; RBA decision; US JOLTS Fiscal and trade expectations; rates in Australia
Wed 4 Nov Eurozone flash inflation (Oct); US ISM services PMI; US ADP employment Key input for the ECB's 17 December meeting
Thu 5 Nov Bank of England decision (Bank Rate currently 3.75%, hike to 4.00% widely expected); Norges Bank; Riksbank Rate differentials for GBP, NOK, SEK
Fri 6 Nov US non-farm payrolls (Oct); eurozone retail sales; German industrial production Labour market data shape December Fed expectations

Times and dates follow the official calendars of the statistics offices and central banks; check them on the day, as releases can be rescheduled.

Three things to practise this week (no trading needed)

  1. Before Wednesday's eurozone inflation release, write down the consensus figure and your note on what a reading 0.3 points above or below it would mean for the Bund yield. Compare with what actually happens.
  2. Take the gold move and the US 10-year yield for the past month and plot them against each other on paper or in a spreadsheet. Which direction did the relationship take this week?
  3. Review one of your open paper positions (if you keep a journal): did this week's volatility stay inside the risk you had planned, or would a gap have exceeded your stop?

This briefing describes past market events for educational purposes. It is not a forecast, not an invitation to buy or sell anything, and not personal advice. Figures are rounded and taken from the sources listed below on 30 October 2026.

Sources